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National Farmers' Union
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - MAY 11, 2007
LOWEST FOOD SUPPLIES IN 50 OR 100 YEARS: GLOBAL FOOD
CRISIS EMERGING
SASKATOON, Sask.-Today, the United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA) released its first projections of world grain supply and demand for
the coming crop year: 2007/08. USDA predicts supplies will plunge to a
53-day equivalent-their lowest level in the 47-year period for which data
exists.
"The USDA projects global grain supplies will drop to their lowest levels
on record. Further, it is likely that, outside of wartime, global grain
supplies have not been this low in a century, perhaps longer," said NFU
Director of Research Darrin Qualman .
Most important, 2007/08 will mark the seventh year out of the past eight
in which global grain production has fallen short of demand. This
consistent shortfall has cut supplies in half-down from a
115-day supply in 1999/00 to the current level of 53 days. "The world is
consistently failing to produce as much grain as it uses," said Qualman.
He continued: "The current low supply levels are not the result of a
transient weather event or an isolated production problem: low supplies
are the result of a persistent drawdown trend."
In addition to falling grain supplies, global fisheries are faltering.
Reports in respected journals Science and Nature state that 1/3 of ocean
fisheries are in collapse, 2/3 will be in collapse by 2025, and our ocean
fisheries may be virtually gone by 2048. "Aquatic food systems are
collapsing, and terrestrial food systems are under tremendous stress,"
said Qualman.
Demand for food is rising rapidly. There is a worldwide push to
proliferate a North American-style meat-based diet based on intensive
livestock production-turning feedgrains into meat in this way means
exchanging 3 to 7 kilos of grain protein for one kilo of meat protein.
Population is rising-2.5 billion people will join the global population in
the coming decades.
"Every six years, we're adding to the world the equivalent of a North
American population. We're trying to feed those extra people, feed a
growing livestock herd, and now, feed our cars, all from a static farmland
base. No one should be surprised that food production can't keep up," said
Qualman.
Qualman said that the converging problems of natural gas and fertilizer
constraints, intensifying water shortages, climate change, farmland loss
and degradation, population increases, the proliferation of livestock
feeding, and an increasing push to divert food supplies into biofuels
means that we are in the opening phase of an intensifying food shortage.
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